RGI Trading · Compounding Intelligence

RGI Trading

The open-source, post-trade layer that learns your trading biases

Every trading tool helps you execute. None measures how you decide — so the same mistakes repeat and the same edge goes unproven, trade after trade.

If this is you

You've been profitable but give it back in drawdowns. You suspect your favorite setup isn't your best one. You keep a journal — and it still can't tell you why Q4 erased Q3. Fits if you're 2+ years in, $50K–$500K, on TradingView + Alpaca/IBKR. (Run a small desk? There's a section for you near the end.)

You point it at 8 months of Alpaca fills. Three minutes later: your RSI+MACD setup — the one you take 3× more than anything — earns 12% trust. The volume-breakout you rarely take? 94%. The ranking inverts. That's minute three, on history you already have.

Scope today: equities & ETFs are live · options (IV/RV regime, premium timing) is next (v1.1).

The problem

You gave back Q3's gains in Q4 — and your journal can't tell you why

Every tool helps you execute; none computes over your verified outcomes to tell you how you actually trade.

Four structural limits of the current stack — architecture gaps, not feature gaps:

1 · Record, don't compute

Journals store P&L by setup. signal truth None compute per-signal, outcome-conditioned variance — which indicator is signal and which is noise for you.

2 · Model the strategy, not the trader

Backtests assume perfect execution. proof to scale They can't prove a strategy is safe to scale on your real fills and exits.

3 · Static scoring

No verified outcome feeds back. fingerprint Day 365 runs the same logic as Day 1 — your edge drifts and nothing notices.

4 · Always an answer

No abstention, no competence boundary. proof gate steps back Can't certify "clean," can't cut its own autonomy when the regime breaks.

What RGI Trading will never do

Place a trade · recommend a position · send a signal · share your data · train on your record · issue a directive. It measures your completed trades. You decide. That boundary is the product, not a setting we'll relax.

The product

The whole product — eight capabilities on one closed loop

You don't buy features — you buy self-knowledge you can act on. Each capability answers a question your current stack can't; together they compound with every verified trade.

Which of your signals actually work

The real edge vs the noise

Your most-trusted signal is often your noisiest — the gap is the bias. DiagonalKernel

Proof before you size up

Scale only what's proven

A theorem, not a policy — and it pauses what's decaying. Conservation law

Where your edge lives by regime

Your edge isn't uniform

Your weights at VIX 15 differ from VIX 32 — it learns both. Regime-conditioned trust

The fingerprint of how you trade

Your reality in numbers

Biases, strengths, blind spots in ~200 learned values. It never forgets. Judgment memory

Only the findings that hold up

Proof, not stories

FDR + deflated Sharpe + 70/30 out-of-sample. Abstains when the data isn't there. Claim gate

Knows when to step back

Flags where you were out of your depth

On a regime break your record shows where to have cut back — the restraint a reward-maximizer's objective skips. Autonomy throttle

Comes back faster after a break

Not from zero

Re-initializes from the nearest prior regime's geometry. roadmap

Every trade enriches the rest

The compounding engine

Each trade sharpens the read on the others — and nothing resets. Cross-Graph Attention

Under the hood: DiagonalKernel decomposes your outcome variance per signal (online Welford σ) to separate edge from noise · Conservation law gates scaling on aggregate accuracy + per-factor drift + rate-of-change · Cross-Graph Attention links every trade so each sharpens the rest · the ~200 learned values are per-(setup × action) centroids in your factor space.

The compounding loop — one verified trade, three improvements at once
one verified trade ↑ signal trust — which to weight ↑ enrichment — each trade lifts the rest ↑ safety floor — what's proven to scale sharper next trade the gap against a static tool widens every month — it never narrows

What you actually see — the panels

Trust Radar + proof badge
  • Your signals in your confidence order — then the radar inverts on verified outcomes
  • Badge shows FDR-cleared + held out-of-sample
Regime analytics + autonomy band
  • Accuracy & Sharpe per strategy, by regime
  • GREEN/AMBER/RED band on the system's own competence
Fingerprint + certificate
  • Your reality in ~200 learned values — the judgment memory of your book
  • "Genuinely clean" certificate when nothing survives correction
Signal trust weights (illustrative)
volume + trend94%
RSI + MACD12%
How it reads you · one setup, this morning

How it reads one setup — judgment where a journal sees only P&L

Without · your favorite setup

RSI+MACD is your go-to — taken 3× more than anything else. Win rate 48%, below your 54% average. Your boring volume-breakout runs 71%. Monthly P&L hides it.

With · signal trust radar

"RSI+MACD: σ=0.31 (noisy), trust weight 12%. Volume+trend: σ=0.09, weight 94%. You take the noisy one 3× more often." The gap between expected and actual importance is the bias.

Your true Sharpe is 1.2, not the 2.1 you believed — the gap was unpriced noise**

** Modeled / illustrative. Trust weights are FDR-corrected and out-of-sample checked, not raw win-rates — see the proof gate below.

The trust radar — expected importance vs what your outcomes prove
RSI+MACD momentum volume+trend mean-rev gap fill breakout what you believe you weight what your outcomes prove The ranking inverts. Your #1 signal is your noisiest — highest σ, lowest earned trust.

Nobody could tell you this — not a coach, not a dashboard. Only your own verified decisions could. A journal records; this reflects.

Earned trust

It earns the right to be trusted — or it says nothing

It never issues a directive, so "trust" here is narrow and testable:

Which of your strategies belong in this situation proof to scale

The gate reads your verified record, not a backtest — and matches strategy to situation
The strategy that quietly died

A swing-momentum strategy ran 18 months, went negative 6 weeks ago. You're still trading it — "it'll come back."

Conservation flags it

"Accuracy 68% → 49%, rolling quality below floor. Regime shifted trending → ranging — this strategy is out of its competence zone now." AMBER

A new strategy you're tempted to lean on

Backtest flatters it; your live sample is thin. Is the edge real for this situation yet?

The record says: not yet

"50 trades, σ=0.12 — hasn't cleared the gate for this regime. Your record shows it isn't earned confidence; it stays a watch." watch

The proof gate, in one line: a finding becomes a claim only if it clears Benjamini-Hochberg FDR across all detectors, beats a deflated-Sharpe threshold, and holds on a 30% confirm set it never saw. Below the bar: "insufficient data (N=4). No score issued." It would rather say nothing than sell you noise.
End to end · one volatile week

One volatile week — read back from your record, where the band flips and why

Mon–Tue · calm

Health band GREEN. Leveraged long the momentum names that ran all spring — full size, "this is easy."

Wed · the break

VIX gaps 16 → 31. Local-Hurst + tail-dependence mark a regime break. The band flips AMBER — the point your record shows to step back until the regime re-converges. It's the flag before the tail that drains a leveraged momentum book.

Thu · rotate, don't flee

Not "reduce everything." Your mean-reversion book runs 71% at VIX 25–35 (GREEN); your breakout/momentum book 38% (RED). Lean into what works in the regime.

Fri · re-converged

Band back toward GREEN. A cold-start learner relearns from zero; this kept the prior vol-regime's geometry and came back faster.

The health band through the break — where it flips to AMBER, and recovers
full0 calmregime breakre-converged GREEN AMBER

Leveraged momentum book · at the break

You're leveraged long the momentum names that worked all spring (QQQ/TQQQ or your two hottest tickers). VIX gaps 16→31, they gap down together — a $30–80K drawdown — and the breach takes the account.

RGI Trading · reading that week

Your record shows where the band flips AMBER — where to have cut back and leaned to the regime-GREEN book. A reward-maximizer optimizes for return; that restraint isn't in its objective, and the agents shipping today skip it.

Every trade enriches the rest · why it compounds

Data enrichment — each trade sharpens the others, and nothing resets

The capability behind the compounding: every trade you've ever made, unified into one graph where each sharpens the read on the rest.

One record, every broker

  • Alpaca + IBKR + CSV + the spreadsheet → one graph
  • Switch brokers or tools — you never start over
  • The fingerprint is yours, not locked to a SaaS

Sharper from day one

  • A new setup reads off your whole enriched history, not from scratch
  • Each trade lifts the priors on related setups and regimes
  • Day-1 accuracy well above a cold start

It carries when you don't

  • Step away for a quarter — the judgment persists
  • Hand a book on — ~200 values transfer to the next trader
  • No knowledge walks out the door
Day-one accuracy over the first months — the enriched graph pulls away, the cold start stays flat
50% 70% day 1month 3month 6 cold start · a fork your enriched graph the widening gap is the compounding · +~20pp by month 6

Illustrative; magnitude modeled. Both start near a cold 50%; only the enriched graph climbs — which is why a copycat forking the code starts far behind. See the moat.

See it · the scenarios

The call a journal makes vs the call RGI makes

Your favorite setup is your worst
Can't prove your edge → Which Signals Actually Work · live

Without: you take RSI+MACD 3× more than anything — it wins 48% vs your 54% average; the boring volume-breakout runs 71%, and monthly P&L hides it. With: the trust radar resolves on your verified trades and inverts — your #1 signal is your noisiest.

earned trust weight · your outcomes, not your gut
RSI+MACD (go-to) 12% volume+trend 94%
verified outcomes → signal trust → de-weight the noisetake the 48% setup 3× less+$2–3K/yr
The regime break — on a premium-selling book
RL blows up in crisis → Knows When to Step Back · v1.1

Without: your premium-selling book stays on through a VIX gap 16→31; the tail turns $1,000 of premium into a $30–80K loss and the account dies on the drawdown breach. With: your record shows where the band flips AMBER — the point to have cut back — before the regime re-converges. The equities version runs live today; this options / short-vol read is the v1.1 extension.

the autonomy band through the shock
GREENbreak
break marked → band AMBER → step backthe flag before the tail$30–80K tail · flagged
Sell premium only when it's rich
Short-vol tail → Where Your Edge Lives by Regime · v1.1

Without: you sell premium at the same size in calm and rich markets — 49% when IV/RV is thin, bleeding when a strike gaps. With: the "income" trade is flagged GREEN only when volatility is genuinely expensive, where your accuracy is 78%.

your short-premium accuracy by IV/RV
IV/RV < 1.2 49% IV/RV > 1.5 78%
IV/RV read → premium GREEN only when rich78% vs 49%6× in vol
The strategy that quietly died
Silent decay → Proof Before You Size Up · live

Without: your swing-momentum strategy ran 18 months, then went negative 6 weeks ago — you're still trading it, "it'll come back." With: rolling quality drops below floor, the strategy is flagged out of its competence zone, and the cause is named: regime shifted trending → ranging.

accuracy over the last weeks — caught at the floor
68% 49% · AMBER · out of zone
rolling quality < floor → flagged out of its zonecaught now, not at month-endAMBER
Bet on volatility itself
Betting on vol blind → Which Signals Actually Work · v1.1

Without: in earnings season you take directional calls/puts 4× more than straddles — directional wins 39%, straddles 68%; you're a volatility trader who trades direction. With: the subtype split is scored from your own trades — you're shown where your vol-edge actually is.

earnings accuracy by subtype
directional 39% straddles (vol) 68%
earnings subtype → verified edgestraddles 68% vs 39%+$4,200/yr

The value multiplier — worth more as volatility rises

CapabilityCalm · VIX 15Volatile · VIX 32×
Signal trustNice to knowEdge vs bias = survival3×
Conservation readFlags oversizeFlags blow-up risk5×
Regime rotationMinor optimization~$4,800 kept + edge captured4×
Premium-selling timing v1.1Low edgeRich premium, your edge on6×
Correlation detectionLow riskPortfolio-collapse risk10×
Platform value$16–26K/yr$64–130K/yr4–5×
The differentiator, in one line: every tool says reduce exposure; the pros' own prescription is size by regime; RGI Trading is the only layer that proves your per-regime edge from your own trades and cuts its own autonomy before the tail. No journal, chart, backtester — or trading agent — has verified-outcome data cut by regime.
The landscape

Agentic trading is here — and it's missing the layer that knows when to stop

What they all do — act
  • An LLM or RL model decides and places trades
  • Generic models · investor personas · backtested rules
  • Robinhood "does not control, supervise or audit the agents"; your data leaves its environment
  • Reward-maximizers — they always act, and herd on shared foundation models
What none of them do — measure
  • Learn which of your signals have verified edge, from your outcomes
  • Abstain when nothing survives correction
  • Cut their own autonomy when the regime breaks — independent of the model
  • Run on your machine, data never leaving
The verdict on the wave, from its own researchers: these agents make money "sometimes in backtesting, rarely in live" — "none are money printers," and the TradingAgents team recommends against real money. A 2026 systematization finds 80% of LLM trading-agent designs fail robustness, none enforce a loss limit outside the model, and the named gap is a missing competence boundary. Fed bad data, agents concentrate positions and take severe drawdowns.

RGI Trading is not another agent that trades. It's observation-only — the layer that measures whether the trade had verified edge, and tells you (or your agent) when to stand down. You can run it underneath any of them; none of them can become it.

Can it…Journals
Tradervue · TradeZella
Algo / strategy
QuantConnect · Composer
Autonomous agents
Robinhood · TradingAgents
RGI Trading
Learn which of MY signals have edge, from MY outcomesCan'tBacktest onlyGeneric modelPer-signal trust, verified
Abstain when nothing survives correction——Always actsYes — claim gate
Cut its own autonomy when the regime breaks——No competence boundaryYes — autonomy throttle
Prove safe-to-scale from MY executionCan'tBacktest "yes"NoConservation law
Run on my machine, data never leavingNo · cloudPartlyNo · data leavesApache 2.0 · self-hosted
Does it place trades?NoYesYesNo — observation only

What you're probably thinking

"Doesn't Robinhood / Composer / TradingAgents already do this?"

They're agents that act — an LLM or rule set decides and places trades, on a generic model, and (Robinhood's own words) unsupervised. RGI is the layer that measures whether the action had verified edge, learned from your outcomes, and abstains when it didn't. Different job. You bolt RGI under an agent; the agent can't become RGI — it has no verified outcomes feeding per-signal trust, and it can't say "nothing here survives correction."

"If agents are the future, why observation-only?"

Because the thing the wave is missing — and the thing the Bank of England is trying to legislate with a kill switch — is exactly a competence boundary: knowing when to stop. An actor that always acts can't be that; the measurement layer that knows when the edge isn't there is. On the roadmap, that's the check an agent calls before it trades.

"If it's open source, what's defensible?"

The code is Apache 2.0 — fork it. Your ~200 learned values are your own portable record, not a lock-in. What's defensible sits elsewhere: the community factor library (network effect), the engine and its published math (the hard part), and the real answer — the moat is the five-copilot platform; Trading-in-the-open is its hardest-domain proof.

The question that sorts the field: "After 1,000 of my trades — which of MY signals have verified edge; does it ABSTAIN when nothing survives correction; does it cut its own autonomy when the regime breaks; from MY execution, on MY machine?" Every agent, journal and backtester answers no. That's the gap none of them fill.
The platform advantage

It doesn't start from zero — one engine, five copilots

RGI Trading

Decision quality for traders — signal trust, conservation, the volatility edge. open · this doc

RGI DataOps

The reasoning layer under a data estate — source trust, self-healing, dark-data discovery.

RGI SOC

Security operations — triage and self-healing response on the same loop.

RGI S2P

Source-to-pay — supplier trust, invoice reasoning, autonomy earned by category.

RGI Purchasing

Margin copilot for operators — ordering, usage truth, price shocks vs verified outcomes.

Shared · Graph Attention Engine

Judgment memory, conservation law, claim gate — a mechanism proven in one domain carries to the rest.

What it costs today

The quiet leaks dwarf the one blow-up you remember

The numbers behind it

  • ~72% of day traders end the year with losses
  • ~1% profitable over five years · 40% quit within a month
  • Barber & Odean: the most active traders underperform the most
  • Weak setup ~$200–800/mo · revenge trades win ~25% vs ~62% planned

FINRA / academic syntheses; Barber & Odean (2000); TradeZella & DayTrading.com top-mistakes compilations (illustrative)

The new way retail blows up: short volatility

  • 0DTE > 75% of retail SPX volume — traded like lottery tickets
  • Retail lost ~$125M (~$350K/day) on 0DTE
  • Premium selling: steady small gains, rare deep losses
  • 60–70% of funded-trader blow-ups are drawdown breaches — dies when vol arrives

Neudata 0DTE review (2024); Track360 2026 (estimate); "Volmageddon," Feb 2018

The leakAnnual cost todaySurfaced
Wrong setup preference — overtrading your worst setup~$3,600$2,000–3,000
Post-win overtrading — size creep after streaks~$2,800$1,500–2,500
Time-of-day weakness — the window you shouldn't trade~$14,400/yr$8,000–12,000
Revenge trades — re-entry within 30 min of a loss~$4,200$2,500–3,500
Execution gap — your fills vs the strategy'svariable$2,000–5,000
Total · individual, $250–500K book$16,000–26,000/yr

Modeled / illustrative from sample. In a volatile year these run 4–5× higher — the capability is worth most exactly when the market is hardest.

The economics

Self-funding from the first leak you close — then it compounds

$16–26K
leakage surfaced /yr · individual
4–5×
value multiple in volatile markets
compounds
gap vs a static tool widens monthly
real data
runs on public market data + your log
Why "compounds" is the word that matters — RGI vs a static tool
month 0month 6month 12 value static tool RGI gap widens, never narrows

Illustrative / modeled. A journal's value is fixed at setup; RGI's rises because it keeps absorbing your verified record.

Each capability, the outcome it buys

CapabilityThe outcome
Which signals actually workStop feeding the 48% setup → ~$2–3K/yr back
Proof before you size upScale only what's proven → no unforced blow-up
Where your edge lives by regimeTrade the regime you're good at → ~$4,800 + edge
Knows when to step backFlags the regime break → the $30–80K tail, seen coming
Every trade enriches the restSharper Day-1, widening gap → the compounding itself

Figures modeled / illustrative from sample.

What it costs

Free and open — with a hand for desks that want one

$0

Open source · the whole tool

  • Apache 2.0, self-hosted — the full engine: signal trust, conservation, claim gate, regime analytics
  • Runs on your machine · your data never leaves · fork it tonight
  • No tier gates capability — the post-trade advisor is the open build, in full
Desk pilots

Hands-on help for a desk / PM

  • "Which of your traders is running a decayed strategy right now?" — across the whole book
  • Book-level correlation risk — the portfolio-collapse signal before it lands
  • A trader leaves — their ~200 learned values transfer to the seat (judgment that took ~8,000 trades)
  • A paid engagement for setup and support — not a licence on the tool

The tool is open source and complete on its own. A desk that wants help standing it up across a book can run a pilot with us — that's a service, not a paywall. All figures modeled / illustrative.

Where it plugs in

Where it fits — on top of your stack, on your own machine, nothing replaced

The reasoning layer on top of your stack — charts, execution and data stay exactly where they are.

Your stack — unchanged
TradingView · chartsAlpaca · executionIBKR · executionyfinance · dataCSV · any broker
↓
RGI Trading — the new layer, running locally
import tradesscore decisionslearn signal trustprove scalingdetect decayoptions / IV-RV · v1.1
↓ on the roadmap
Your agent, if you run one — RGI is the check it calls before it acts
Robinhood MCP / custom agent→ asks RGI: "verified edge in this regime?" →RGI answers · or abstains

Scope today: equities & ETFs are live — signal trust, scaling proof, decay detection. Options (IV/RV regime, premium-selling timing) is v1.1, on the roadmap — the premium & short-vol scenarios show where that capability lands.

How it's delivered — the part your security and your privacy care about

Your data, your machine
  • Apache 2.0, self-hosted by default — runs on your laptop or your box
  • Your trade history never leaves your machine — no cloud account required
  • No training on your data, no shared corpus — your fingerprint is yours alone
  • Deterministic — bias detection is math, not an LLM guessing
What it will and won't do
  • Observation only — it reports; never "buy / sell / size X"
  • No broker execution path, by design — it can't place a trade
  • Every output is your own measured record, not a signal or a tip
  • You stay the decision-maker; the system stays the mirror
The invariant, stated plainly: every screen ends in data you read, not a directive the system issues. A product and a scope boundary, not a feature we'll relax — a tool that tells retail traders what to trade is a different, regulated thing.
Quick wins — your fingerprint's first reads

What you see in the first session — before you trust it with anything

Point it at your trade log — logged only fills? It reconstructs the signal and regime context from public market data, point-in-time, so the first panels resolve on history you already have. No authority granted to anything.

Minute three

Your signal-trust radar resolves on the log you already have — and usually inverts.

First weeks

Regime split and execution-gap reads fill in as more trades clear correction.

~3 months

The certificate — or a clear "not yet." A quarter of verified trades and the fingerprint is stable; the gate waits rather than overfit.

Lower-frequency trader? It reads whatever history you have — a few hundred trades is plenty to start. If your record is thinner it abstains rather than guess: the certificate waits until your own data can support it, however long that takes for your cadence.

Your signal trust radar — day one

  • Resolves on the trades you already have
  • The inversion — most-used signal sitting lowest — usually lands in the first session
from your existing log · minutes to first read

Your bias flags

  • Post-streak size creep · revenge re-entries · time-of-day weakness
  • Each with its historical cost + a conservation status
GREEN / AMBER / RED · with the dollar cost

Your regime split

  • Where your edge concentrates — trending vs ranging vs high-vol
  • Stop running one playbook across regimes it was never fit for
accuracy & Sharpe per regime

The certificate — or a clear "not yet"

  • A certified claim when a pattern clears correction
  • "Genuinely clean" or "insufficient data" otherwise — never a manufactured insight
FDR + out-of-sample · abstains by default
Where to start

Fork it tonight — clone, run the gate, watch your fingerprint fill

Tonight

Clone GAE + SDK + the trading copilot. Point it at Alpaca / IBKR / CSV. Signal trust radar + bias flags resolve on what you already have — in minutes.

First weeks

Regime split and execution-gap read fill in. The gate certifies what survives correction and stays silent on what doesn't. (Full convergence timeline is in Quick wins, above.)

The one page

A mirror, not an advisor

The one tool that learns which of your signals predict your outcomes, proves when a strategy is safe to scale, knows when it's out of its depth, and gets better with every verified trade — on your machine, in your hands.

proof-gated
every claim: FDR + out-of-sample
4–5×
value when volatility arrives
~200
learned values · your portable record
Apache 2.0
open · self-hosted · observation-only
The question that sorts the field: after 1,000 of your trades — which of your signals have verified edge; does it abstain when nothing survives correction; does it cut its own autonomy when the regime breaks; from your execution, on your machine? Every agent, journal and backtester answers no.
RGI Trading · Outreach Dashboard v13 · October 2026 · Observation-only (no trade directives) · Figures modeled / illustrative from sample · Industry data cited by source · Re-convergence magnitude simulation-only, pilot-pending · No production customers · Apache 2.0